Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region     

YanRan Lü  Tong Jiang  YanJun Wang  BuDa Su  JinLong Huang  Hui Tao 《寒旱区科学》2020,12(6):389-403

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.  相似文献   

Near‐surface hydraulic conductivity of northern hemisphere glaciers          下载免费PDF全文

Ian T. Stevens  Tristram D.L. Irvine‐Fynn  Philip R. Porter  Joseph M. Cook  Arwyn Edwards  Martin Smart  Brian J. Moorman  Andy J. Hodson  Andrew C. Mitchell 《水文研究》2018,32(7):850-865

The hydrology of near‐surface glacier ice remains a neglected aspect of glacier hydrology despite its role in modulating meltwater delivery to downstream environments. To elucidate the hydrological characteristics of this near‐surface glacial weathering crust, we describe the design and operation of a capacitance‐based piezometer that enables rapid, economical deployment across multiple sites and provides an accurate, high‐resolution record of near‐surface water‐level fluctuations. Piezometers were employed at 10 northern hemisphere glaciers, and through the application of standard bail–recharge techniques, we derive hydraulic conductivity (K) values from 0.003 to 3.519 m day^?1, with a mean of 0.185 ± 0.019 m day^?1. These results are comparable to those obtained in other discrete studies of glacier near‐surface ice, and for firn, and indicate that the weathering crust represents a hydrologically inefficient aquifer. Hydraulic conductivity correlated positively with water table height but negatively with altitude and cumulative short‐wave radiation since the last synoptic period of either negative air temperatures or turbulent energy flux dominance. The large range of K observed suggests complex interactions between meteorological influences and differences arising from variability in ice structure and crystallography. Our data demonstrate a greater complexity of near‐surface ice hydrology than hitherto appreciated and support the notion that the weathering crust can regulate the supraglacial discharge response to melt production. The conductivities reported here, coupled with typical supraglacial channel spacing, suggest that meltwater can be retained within the weathering crust for at least several days. Not only does this have implications for the accuracy of predictive meltwater run‐off models, but we also argue for biogeochemical processes and transfers that are strongly conditioned by water residence time and the efficacy of the cascade of sediments, impurities, microbes, and nutrients to downstream ecosystems. Because continued atmospheric warming will incur rising snowline elevations and glacier thinning, the supraglacial hydrological system may assume greater importance in many mountainous regions, and consequently, detailing weathering crust hydraulics represents a research priority because the flow path it represents remains poorly constrained.  相似文献   

The information system of the French Peatland Observation Service: Service National d'Observation Tourbières – A valuable tool to assess the impact of global changes on the hydrology and biogeochemistry of temperate peatlands through long term monitoring     

Sébastien Gogo  Jean-Baptiste Paroissien  Fatima Laggoun-Défarge  Jean-Marc Antoine  Léonard Bernard-Jannin  Guillaume Bertrand  Philippe Binet  Stéphane Binet  Guillaume Bouger  Yohann Brossard  Thierry Camboulive  Jean-Pierre Caudal  Stéphane Chevrier  Geneviève Chiapiuso  Benoît D'Angelo  Pilar Durantez  Chris Flechard  André-Jean Francez  Didier Galop  Laure Gandois  Daniel Gilbert  Christophe Guimbaud  Louis Hinault  Adrien Jacotot  Franck Le Moing  Emilie Lerigoleur  Gaël Le Roux  Fabien Leroy  Alexandre Lhosmot  Qian Li  Elodie Machado Da Silva  Jean-Sébastien Moquet  Juanita Mora-Gomez  Laurent Perdereau  Thomas Rosset  Marie-Laure Toussaint 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14244

Mitigating and adapting to global changes requires a better understanding of the response of the Biosphere to these environmental variations. Human disturbances and their effects act in the long term (decades to centuries) and consequently, a similar time frame is needed to fully understand the hydrological and biogeochemical functioning of a natural system. To this end, the ‘Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique’ (CNRS) promotes and certifies long-term monitoring tools called national observation services or ‘Service National d'Observation’ (SNO) in a large range of hydrological and biogeochemical systems (e.g., cryosphere, catchments, aquifers). The SNO investigating peatlands, the SNO ‘Tourbières’, was certified in 2011 ( https://www.sno-tourbieres.cnrs.fr/ ). Peatlands are mostly found in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere and French peatlands are located in the southern part of this area. Thus, they are located in environmental conditions that will occur in northern peatlands in coming decades or centuries and can be considered as sentinels. The SNO Tourbières is composed of four peatlands: La Guette (lowland central France), Landemarais (lowland oceanic western France), Frasne (upland continental eastern France) and Bernadouze (upland southern France). Thirty target variables are monitored to study the hydrological and biogeochemical functioning of the sites. They are grouped into four datasets: hydrology, fluvial export of organic matter, greenhouse gas fluxes and meteorology/soil physics. The data from all sites follow a common processing chain from the sensors to the public repository. The raw data are stored on an FTP server. After operator or automatic processing, data are stored in a database, from which a web application extracts the data to make them available ( https://data-snot.cnrs.fr/data-access/ ). Each year at least, an archive of each dataset is stored in Zenodo, with a digital object identifier (DOI) attribution ( https://zenodo.org/communities/sno_tourbieres_data/ ).  相似文献   

Quantifying terrain controls on runoff retention and routing in the Northern Prairies     

Igor Pavlovskii  Saskia L. Noorduijn  Jessica E. Liggett  Jeanette Klassen  Masaki Hayashi 《水文研究》2020,34(2):473-484

The role of hummocky terrain in governing runoff routing and focussing groundwater recharge in the Northern Prairies of North America is widely recognised. However, most hydrological studies in the region have not effectively utilised information on the surficial geology and associated landforms in large-scale hydrological characterization. The present study uses an automated digital elevation model (DEM) analysis of a 6500-km² area in the Northern Prairies to quantify hydrologically relevant terrain parameters for the common types of terrains in the prairies with different surficial deposits widespread in the prairies, namely, moraines and glaciolacustrine deposits. Runoff retention (and storage) capacity within depressions varies greatly between different surficial deposits and is comparable in magnitude with a typical amount of seasonal snowmelt runoff generation. The terrain constraint on potential runoff retention varies from a few millimetres in areas classified as moraine to tens of millimetres in areas classified as stagnant ice moraine deposits. Fluted moraine and glaciolacustrine deposits have intermediate storage capacity values. The study also identified the probability density function describing a number of immediate upstream neighbours for each depression in a fill-and-spill network. A relationship between depression parameters and surficial deposits, as well as identified depression network structure, allows parametrisation of hydrologic models outside of the high-resolution DEM coverage, which can still account for terrain variation in the Prairies.  相似文献   

Experimental partitioning of trace elements into schreibersite with applications to IIG iron meteorites     

Nancy L. Chabot  Rachel H. Cueva  Andrew W. Beck  Richard D. Ash 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2020,55(4):726-743

Some of the defining characteristics of the IIG iron meteorite group are their high bulk P contents and massive, coarse schreibersite, which have been calculated to make up roughly 11–14 wt% of each specimen. In this study, we produced two data sets to investigate the formation of schreibersites in IIG irons: measurements of trace elements in the IIG iron meteorite Twannberg and experimental determinations of trace element partitioning into schreibersite. The schreibersite‐bearing experiments were conducted with schreibersite in equilibrium with a P‐rich melt and with bulk Ni contents ranging from 0 to 40 wt%. The partitioning behavior for the 20 elements measured in this study did not vary with Ni content. Comparison of the Twannberg measurements with the experimental results required a correction factor to account for the fact that the experiments were conducted in a simplified system that did not contain a solid metal phase. Previously determined solid metal/P‐rich melt partition coefficients were applied to infer schreibersite/solid metal partitioning behavior from the experiments, and once this correction was applied, the two data sets showed broad similarities between the schreibersite/solid metal distribution of elements. However, there were also differences noted, in particular between the Ni and P contents of the solid metal relative to the schreibersite inferred from the experiments compared to that measured in the Twannberg sample. These differences support previous interpretations that subsolidus schreibersite evolution has strongly influenced the Ni and P content now present in the solid metal phase of IIG irons. Quantitative attempts to match the IIG solid metal composition to that of late‐stage IIAB irons through subsolidus schreibersite growth were not successful, but qualitatively, this study corroborates the striking similarities between the IIAB and IIG groups, which are highly suggestive of a possible genetic link between the groups as has been previously proposed.  相似文献   

Development of Methods for Navigational Referencing of Circumlunar Spacecrafts to the Selenocentric Dynamic Coordinate System     

Andreev  A. O.  Nefedyev  Yu. A.  Demina  N. Yu.  Nefediev  L. A.  Petrova  N. K.  Zagidullin  A. A. 《Astronomy Reports》2020,64(9):795-803

Astronomy Reports - The initial form of present-day space optical observations contain considerable geometrical and brightness distortions. This problem can be solved based on geometrical...  相似文献   

赤道东印度洋和孟加拉湾障碍层厚度的年际变化及其影响机制     

马天  程旭华  齐义泉  陈佳佳 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(7):19-31

Interannual variability(IAV) in the barrier layer thickness(BLT) and forcing mechanisms in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean(EEIO) and Bay of Bengal(BoB) are examined using monthly Argo data sets during 2002–2017. The BLT during November–January(NDJ) in the EEIO shows strong IAV, which is associated with the Indian Ocean dipole mode(IOD), with the IOD leading the BLT by two months. During the negative IOD phase, the westerly wind anomalies driving the downwelling Kelvin waves increase the isothermal layer depth(ILD). Moreover, the variability in the mixed layer depth(MLD) is complex. Affected by the Wyrtki jet, the MLD presents negative anomalies west of 85°E and strong positive anomalies between 85°E and 93°E. Therefore, the BLT shows positive anomalies except between 86°E and 92°E in the EEIO. Additionally, the IAV in the BLT during December–February(DJF) in the BoB is also investigated. In the eastern and northeastern BoB, the IAV in the BLT is remotely forced by equatorial zonal wind stress anomalies associated with the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). In the western BoB, the regional surface wind forcing-related ENSO modulates the BLT variations.  相似文献   

The Ni–Antimonide Mineral Assemblage: A Product of Recrystallization of Sn–Pb–Zn Ores of the Yuzhnoe Deposit,Sikhote-Alin,Russia     

Ratkin  V. V.  Simanenko  L. F.  Gonevchuk  V. G.  Eliseeva  O. A. 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2020,492(1):317-319

Doklady Earth Sciences - A mineral assemblage with nisbite NiSb2 and breithauptite NiSb unique for a Mesozoic (Sn)–Pb–Zn vein deposit is found during mineralogical–geochemical...  相似文献   

Digital Elevation Models of the Bottom in the Operational Oceanography System     

Libina  N. V.  Nikiforov  S. L. 《Oceanology》2020,60(6):854-860

Oceanology - A new area of oceanography, operational oceanography, involves a comprehensive assessment and forecast of the variability of the state of the marine environment. This requires...  相似文献   

Geomaterials in green building practices: comparative characterization of commercially available clay-based plasters   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

G. Montana  L. Randazzo  S. Sabbadini 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(2):931-945

Three pre-mixed powdered clay-based (earthen) plasters produced in Europe and specifically designed for wall undercoating were analyzed in this paper. These materials are commercially available and successfully employed in green building practices all over the world. Their compositional and textural characteristics, as well as plastic behaviour were investigated through a multi-analytical approach: X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD), polarized light microscopy (PLM), X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRFS), scanning electron microscopy equipped with an energy dispersive spectrometer (SEM-EDS), mercury intrusion porosimetry (MIP), grain-size distribution (GSD) and semi-empirical tests (Atterberg Limits, Linear Shrinkage). In addition, a natural earth (a terra rossa red soil sampled in north-western Sicily), theoretically appropriate for the production of earthen plaster, was subjected to the same analytical routine and compared with the three commercially available pre-mixed products. The achieved results allowed to individuate the compositional and textural features that primarily influence the performances of the studied earthen plasters. The obtained data are expected to be also useful in directing the selection of raw materials for local manufacture of specifically designed innovative products.  相似文献